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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The Trump administration appeals quickly to fire Cook, CPI is qgrse.cning tonight!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 11, spot gold trading was around $3,642/ounce, and gold prices hovered near record highs on Wednesday, helped by expectations that the Federal Reserve would resume interest rate cuts at next week's meeting. The previously released U.S. inflation data was lower than expected; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.77/barrel.
The US dollar rose and fell on Wednesday, but the volatility was not large and the trend lacked a clear direction. Previous data showed that the US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly declined in August, further consolidating market expectations that the Federal Reserve will restart interest rate cuts this month.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the final demand PPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month in August, and the July data was revised down to an increase of 0.7%, while the previous value was up 0.9%. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected PPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in August. PPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in August, lower than economists' expectations of 3.3%.
Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said the market expects a 50 basis point cut to rise, but it remains very low. The economy has indeed slowed down, but there are no signs of collapse, and may even accelerate in the qgrse.cning months, with inflationary pressures seemingly moderate, but risks remain skewed upward. For most market participants, a 25 basis point rate cut is still the most likely basic situation.
After the data was released, CME’s FedWatch tool showed that the federal funds rate futures market currently expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rate by 25 basis points this month is 90%, and the probability of a 50 basis points cut is 10%. TuesdayThe forecast for the evening was 93% and 7% respectively.
After the release of PPI data, investors' focus turned to the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Thursday. Surveys showed that analysts expect CPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions continued overnight and continued until Wednesday.
Israel launched air strikes on Qatar on Tuesday in an attempt to assassinate Hamas leader, while Poland shot down drones entering its airspace during Russia's attack on western Ukraine, causing tensions among investors.
Federal Governor Christian Hawksby said today that the central bank still expects the official cash rate to drop from its current 3.00% to around 2.50% by the end of the year. However, the speed may be "faster or slower", depending on the incoming data. He stressed that the path to policy easing will depend on "the speed of New Zealand's economic recovery".
Hoksby noted that the August monetary policy statement highlighted a severe blow to household and business confidence, with the economy stagnating mid-year and causing more weakness. He attributed the "confidence shock" largely to uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, coupled with pressure on cost of living and a weak real estate market.
Nevertheless, the leading indicator in July was "better", consistent with the prospect of the New Zealand Fed's rebound in the second half of the year. Hawkesby said policymakers will continue to monitor the spillover effects of U.S. tariffs on global growth and New Zealand businesses. The New Zealand Fed resumed its rate cut last month after suspending interest rate cuts in July.
Judge blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Director Cook, and the Trump administration appealed quickly.
U.S. producer prices fell unexpectedly in August, with PPI falling -0.1% month-on-month, while expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. The reason for the decline is that the final demand for services has dropped by -0.2% month-on-month, while qgrse.cnmodity prices have risen slightly by 0.1% month-on-month.
qgrse.cnpared with the same period last year, PPI slowed sharply to 2.6% from 3.3% in July, lower than the 3.3% forecast, and indicates that price pressure at the factory gate has eased. Markets will welcome this slowdown, seeking evidence that inflationary pressures are easing.
However, the basic indicators are still firm. The core PPI, excluding food, energy and trade services, rose 0.3% month-on-month, and rose for the fourth consecutive month, with an annual rate of 2.8%, the fastest since March.
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