US dollar index fell, US PPI unexpectedly cooled sharply in August

On September 11, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.83 on Wednesday. The US PPI unexpectedly cooled down sharply in August, and the US dollar index fell, but then recovered the lost territory and finally closed up 0.07% to 97.81. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0930%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.5520%. The unexpected decline of the US PPI in August has allowed the market to almost qgrse.cnpletely digest the expectations of three interest rate cuts in the rest of this year. Spot gold once approached $3,560/ounce, and finally closed up 0.45% to $3,639.81/ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.57% to $41.14/ounce. Oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day as investors weighed the possibility of Trump's further punishment measures against Russia. WTI crude oil rose 1.56% to $63.74 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.58% to $67.59 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.83. The US dollar index fluctuated after the release of PPI data and closed at 97.83 on Wednesday, an increase of only 0.08%, and has fallen by nearly 10% this year. This weak trend is mainly affected by chaos in U.S. trade and fiscal policy and increased concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Technically, the price movement of the U.S. dollar index indicates that buyers are returning because it trades slightly below resistance at 97.903.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1696. On Wednesday, the euro/dollar remained stable around 1.1700, and market participants were digesting U.S. economic data. The weakening of the dollar has allowed the pair to trade within familiar levels as inflation reports are weak and expectations for the Fed's first rate cut. Fitch rating agencies expect to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December, and expect to cut interest rates three more times in 2026. Instead, the rating agency did not predict further rate cuts by the European Central Bank. After the data is released, traders expect the probability of the Fed's 25 basis points cut rate is 90%, and the probability of a 50 basis points cut rate is 10%, according to the PrimeMarketTerminal interest rate probability tool. The ECB may keep interest rates unchanged at a probability of 93%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 7%. Technically, it fell back from its recent high to 1.1704, losing ground as the US dollar index strengthened. Earlier this week, the euro briefly strengthened after the French government collapsed after a vote of distrust.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3530. The pound/dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, as the market awaited the latest inflation update. Inflation of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed in August, strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be announced on Thursday, which could qgrse.cnplicate the Fed's path to further cut rates. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% again in the year ended in August. The core CPI is expected to remain at an annual rate of 3.1%, still above the Fed's 2% inflation target. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the interest rate market expects the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week is more than 90%. Technically, it remained around 1.3535, and maintained its recent increase after rebounding from the low of 1.3333 in early September. Although the UK inflation remains sticky and the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, political risks are spreading again.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold hovered around 3644.92. The current strength of the gold market is due to the weak US economic data, geopolitical risks and multiple positive factors of the Fed's policy shift. Although gold prices may fluctuate due to CPI data in the short term, the overall bull market pattern has been determined, and the performance of this year's increase of more than 39% indicates more upside potential. Investors should be wary of potential risks, such as unexpected rebound in inflation or ease of geopolitical situations, but in the long run, the allocation value of gold as a diversified asset is highlighted. In the United StatesAs the Fed rate cut cycle begins, gold investment may usher in a real "golden age". It is recommended to closely track macro data and make timely arrangements to capture opportunities.

Technical: From a technical perspective, gold must expand its growth. On the daily chart, the pair is well above its moving average, with the bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) moving faster northward, above the longer moving average. At the same time, the technical indicators rose slightly after a moderate downward correction, and remained at an extremely overbought level. In the short term, according to the 4-hour chart, gold enters the consolidation stage, but the risk is still biased towards upward. Bright Metals trades well above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20SMA offering near-term support around $3,625. The 100 and 200SMAs are also moving forward, but are much lower than the shorter SMAs. Technical indicators turn to decline within a positive level, reflecting the lack of upward momentum rather than suggesting an imminent decline.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 63.37. Under global geopolitical risks, WTI crude oil has risen for the third consecutive day. The intensification of geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East has provided some support for crude oil. Geopolitical risks in Europe rose after Poland shot down Russian drones that crossed the border into its territory in a recent Russian attack on Ukraine. In the Middle East, Israel launched an attack on Doha, Qatar on Tuesday, targeting the senior leadership of Hamas. Qatar said the Israeli attack violates international law and has the potential to expand conflict in the region, which accounts for about one-third of global supply.

Technical: The market may continue to regard the above $66 level as a huge resistance level and the $62 level as a huge support level.

Forex market trading reminder on September 11, 2025

①To be determined OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report

②16:00IEA releases monthly crude oil market report

③20:15 European Central Bank announces interest rate resolution

④20:30 US August unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate

⑤20:30 US August quarterly adjusted CPI monthly rate

⑥20: 30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to September 6

⑦20:30 US Seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate in August

⑧20:30 US Seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in August

⑨20:45 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde held a press conference

⑩22:30 US EIA natural gas inventory in the week from the week from the United States to September 5

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