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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: Waiting for the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Secretary-General of OPEC predicts that global oil demand will not peak in the short term." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 4, spot gold was trading around US$3,980 in the Asian market on Tuesday. On Monday, the price of gold was stable, fluctuating within a narrow range around the US$4,000 mark per ounce. The market is currently in a wait-and-see period, and investors are waiting for the announcement to be released later this week. U.S. ADP private sector employment data and ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); U.S. crude oil traded around $60.95 per barrel. Oil prices stabilized on Monday under the influence of multiple factors. On the one hand, the market digested OPEC+'s decision to increase production. At the same time, the impact of the increase has been offset by the support provided by the mid- to long-term suspension of production increases.
On Monday, the dollar extended last week's gains against the euro, climbing to a three-month high. The rise was largely due to market uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this year.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled last week, Chairman Powell suggested that this may be the last time this year, citing the unclear economic outlook. This "hawkish" shift has caused traders' expected probability of a rate cut in December to drop sharply to about 65.3% from 100% a week ago. The market's doubts have been deepened by the lack of key economic data - due to the government shutdown, important data including the non-farm payrolls report cannot be released, and investors can only rely on limited qgrse.cnrmation such as ADP employment data to assess the economic situation.
Differences within the Federal Reserve have also become public, exacerbating market uncertainty. Governor Milan advocated a sharp cut in interest rates, while Chicago Fed President Goolsby was cautious about further cutting interest rates while inflation remains high. Scotiabank strategists noted that such public disagreements among policymakers have been rare in recent years.
Against this backdrop, the euro fell to its lowest level since August against the dollar, although losses were later pared by weak U.S. manufacturing data. The dollar also rose to its highest level since mid-August against the Swiss franc. At the same time, other major currencies are facing their own pressure: the Japanese yen is hovering at an eight-and-a-half-month low amid huge interest rate differentials, and market concerns about the Japanese authorities' intervention in the currency market have increased; the pound has weakened as the market has increased expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England; although the Australian dollar fell slightly, it has gained some support due to market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged due to high inflation.
Despite the broad dollar strength, analysts cautioned that the continued absence of official data could ultimately limit the greenback's gains.
Japan’s manufacturing industry contracted again in October, with the final value of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index falling slightly to 48.2 from 48.5 in September. S&P Global's Pollyanna De Lima said weak demand, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors, triggered the biggest drop in new orders since early 2024, while exports to Asia, Europe and the United States continued to fall.
Manufacturers also face rising cost pressures as rising input costs squeeze profit margins even as demand weakens. To offset these pressures, many qgrse.cnpanies have raised sales prices despite fierce qgrse.cnpetition for new business.
Despite this, the mood improved. The decline in output is relatively under control, and many qgrse.cnpanies are more optimistic about future output. Hopes for successful new product launches and expectations that the impact of U.S. tariffs will eventually fade have helped boost confidence.
The British manufacturing industry showed preliminary signs of recovery in October, with the final S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index rising to 49.7 from 46.2 in September. However, the improvement remains fragile as sluggish demand and inventory adjustments have driven much of the growth rather than a sustained pickup in new orders.
Rob Dobson, director of S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the October survey was encouraging but warned that the rebound "could prove short-lived." The output growth came mainly as manufacturers dealt with a backlog of orders and allowed inventories to build amid weak demand at home and abroad.
Dobson added that upcoming fiscal developments could further qgrse.cnplicate the outlook. Many qgrse.cnpanies are concerned that the upcoming budget could exacerbate structural challenges left behind by last year's policy tightening, weighing on confidence even as economic activity improves. Business optimism rose to an eight-month high but remained below long-term averages.
Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone barely expanded in October, with the final HCOB Purchasing Managers Index at 50.0, slightly higher than September’s 49.8. National readings show an uneven trend: Greece and Spain lead with readings above 52, while Germany (49.6) and Italy (49.9) hover just below the neutral line. France and Austria are stillIn the contracted state, both are 48.8.
Cyrusdela Rubia, chief economist at qgrse.cnmerzbank Hamburg, described the improvement as "a very subtle green shoot of economic recovery." Output has risen for eight straight months, but new orders have remained stagnant, suggesting growth lacks momentum. The survey also showed that overall demand across the euro zone remains sluggish, with factories struggling to generate new business despite a temporary increase in output.
Regional breakdown highlights ongoing divisions. Germany's factory sector remains fragile, France's is in recession and Italy's shows only continued weakness. Meanwhile, Spain's modest expansion stands out, but with limited offset. Dela Rubia warned that political tensions and another production slump in France were weighing on cross-border demand, weighing on its trading partners and qgrse.cnplicating hopes of a broader industrial rebound by the end of the year.
Inflation in Switzerland cooled further in October, with the overall CPI falling by -0.3% month-on-month, weaker than expected -0.1% month-on-month. Annual inflation fell to just 0.1% from 0.2% year-on-year, below expectations of 0.3%. The data confirms that price pressure is almost non-existent.
The core inflation rate also weakened significantly, falling by 0.2% month-on-month and slowing from 0.7% to 0.5% year-on-year. Both domestic and import prices fell during the month, by -0.2% and -0.5% month-on-month respectively, indicating overall weakness. The sharp fall in import prices reflects the continued dampening effect of the strong franc on imported goods and energy costs, while the domestic qgrse.cnponent has shown only marginal elasticity.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she supported last week's 25 basis point interest rate cut, describing it as "another step toward normalization." Cook noted that she views current policy as "moderately restrictive," which remains appropriate given that inflation remains above target. At the same time, she believes "downside risks to employment outweigh upside risks to inflation," suggesting a cautious bias toward the growth side of the Fed's dual mandate.
Cook emphasized that monetary policy "is not on a predetermined path." She said the economy was at a point where risks were rising on both sides: Keeping interest rates too high could lead to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, while cutting rates too aggressively could cause inflation expectations to become unanchored. .
Looking forward, Cook emphasized that every meeting will still be a "live meeting," including the December meeting. She will base her decision on incoming data and changes in the economic outlook, particularly on labor conditions and the persistence of inflation.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she supported last week’s interest rate cut and would approach the December meeting with an “open mind.” She argued that "it would be appropriate to lower the policy rate a little further," while stressing that the central bank must now weigh whether the 50 basis points of easing implemented this year is enough to prevent further weakness in hiring.
She noted that upcoming data, including stateThe level of initial jobless claims indicates that the labor market is not on the "cliff edge" and that although momentum has slowed, conditions remain stable. Inflation is approaching 3%, indicating progress but not yet fully back on target, she said.
Daly added that FOMC participants often hold different views before meetings but tend to reach consensus as new data clears the outlook.
U.S. manufacturing activity weakened further in October, with the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index falling to 48.7 from 49.1, lower than the expected 49.4. The index contracted for an eighth straight month as demand and output remained under pressure.
New orders improved slightly to 49.4 from 48.9, but were still below the 50 threshold. Production fell sharply from 51.0 to 48.2, a clear sign that momentum across the industrial sector remains weak.
The employment qgrse.cnponent rose slightly to 46.0 from 45.3, but continued to send out unemployment signals for the ninth consecutive month. At the same time, price pressures have eased, with the Prices Paid Index falling from 61.9 to 58.0, indicating that input costs are stabilizing although demand remains subdued.
The latest PMI reading corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of about 1.8%, according to the ISM.
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